Cacciaguida

Defending the 12th century since the 14th; blogging since the 21st.

Catholicism, Conservatism, the Middle Ages, Opera, and Historical and Literary Objets d'Art blogged by a suburban dad who teaches law and writes stuff.


"Very fun." -- J. Bottum, Editor, FIRST THINGS

"Too modest" -- Elinor Dashwood

"Perhaps the wisest man on the Web" -- Henry Dieterich

"Hat tip: me (but really Cacciaguida)" -- Diana Feygin, Editor, THE YALE FREE PRESS

"You are my sire. You give me confidence to speak. You raise my heart so high that I am no more I." -- Dante

"Fabulous!"-- Warlock D.J. Prod of Didsbury

Who was Cacciaguida? See Dante's PARADISO, Cantos XV, XVI, & XVII.


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Saturday, November 01, 2008
 
Some good news, and a sobering reflection

Pollster John Zogby:
Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all.
Meanwhile, elsewhere in Pennsylvania:
Gov. Ed Rendell urged supporters of Sen. Barack Obama on Friday to get out the vote in the last 100 hours of the presidential campaign because the race for Pennsylvania is closer than polls suggest.

"This is not a 10-, 12- or 14-point election for Barack Obama," the Democratic governor said Friday afternoon in the lobby of East Stroudsburg University's new Science and Technology Center. "A lot can happen in that last weekend."

While most polls show the Democrat Obama leading his Republican rival, Sen. John McCain, by 7 to 14 points in the state, a recent NBC/Mason-Dixon poll forecast a mere 4-point difference.

"The enthusiasm gap has narrowed," he said....
Look, I need to add this about last-minute poll-narrowings. They happen a lot (Ford in '76, Gore in '00, and Kerry in '04). Almost always, the candidate who was behind but whose numbers were improving at the end loses anyway. And then his supporters wander around bumping into trees and saying, "If the election had been one week later...!"

Dummkopf!! If the election had been one week later, your last-minute surge would have been one week later too! It was almost certainly a voter response to the approaching deadline, not some exogenous variable caused by dawning recognition of your candidate's intrinsic wonderfulness! Get a grip and start planning for the next election cycle!

That said, it is nice to read the above news, and to see a few pundits talking about the electorate's Obama "buyer's remorse," e.g. this one, and also Republican insider Ed Rogers in The Washington Post (subscriber access only).

Rogers also talks about how voters resent the media telling them "it's over" and that they have no further choice to make. In that regard, consider Doonesbury's latest.